Bitcoin Stalls Below $65,000 Despite Record $853M Weekly ETF Inflows - Head-and-Shoulders Pattern and BIP-110 Fork Risk Loom

What Happened

As of August 9, Bitcoin is trading around $64,760, having repeatedly poked above $65,000 intraday - at one point touching $65,015 - only to get sold back down each time. Ether has shown a similarly muted pattern, holding near $1,925 with little momentum in either direction. Both coins have recovered meaningfully from their late-July lows, but the rally has visibly lost steam right at the psychologically important $65,000 level for Bitcoin.

What makes this stall notable is that it isn't happening for lack of demand. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs logged five straight days of net inflows through Friday, August 7, pulling in a combined $853.5 million for the week - the largest weekly haul since April 17. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for the lion's share, absorbing $693.7 million, or more than 80% of the total, while Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) added another $116.4 million. That kind of concentrated institutional buying showing up on the tape while spot price goes nowhere is the detail worth sitting with here.

Two distinct forces appear to be capping the upside at the same time: one purely technical, the other rooted in a live dispute over Bitcoin's own protocol rules.

What the Chart Is Showing - An Inverse (Bottoming) Head-and-Shoulders Pattern

The first factor is chart structure. Since early June, Bitcoin has been tracing what technicians describe as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe - a classic bullish reversal formation built from three troughs, with the middle trough (the "head") lower than the two flanking troughs (the "shoulders"). The left shoulder formed near $60,000 in early June, the head printed near $57,700 in late June as the lowest point of the pattern, and the right shoulder has since built out around $62,500. One caveat worth flagging: buying volume has visibly declined as the right shoulder has formed, which analysts cite as a reason the bottoming setup isn't yet fully convincing.

The pattern's "neckline" - the level that would confirm the bullish reversal if cleared - sits near $66,800. A decisive close above that neckline would open a measured-move upside target around $76,000, using the standard inverse head-and-shoulders calculation, with a stretch target near $80,400 if buying momentum extends further. That said, the pattern remains unconfirmed - it only becomes valid once price clears the neckline and holds above it.

The setup has a clear invalidation level, too: a decisive break below the 50-day moving average, currently near $63,321, would be an early sign the bullish structure is losing its footing rather than building toward a breakout. In effect, Bitcoin is boxed in between an invalidation line near $63,321 and a breakout line near $66,800, waiting for the market to force a decision either way. One analyst, Ted Pillows, has flagged $65,000 itself as Bitcoin's immediate resistance, arguing that reclaiming it could set up the next leg higher. Another, Daan Crypto Trades, has said a push above $67,000 would make the structure "more constructive," with the $69,000-$72,000 zone housing the next cluster of higher-timeframe resistance.

The Other Variable - BIP-110 and Fork Risk

The second factor sits entirely outside the price chart, inside Bitcoin's own protocol. BIP-110, known as the "Reduced Data Temporary Softfork," would temporarily cap the amount of arbitrary data that can be embedded in Bitcoin transactions for roughly a year, through seven rules limiting most new outputs to 34 bytes, OP_RETURN data to 83 bytes, and data pushes to 256 bytes. The intent is to curb data-heavy activity such as Ordinals inscriptions and BRC-20-style tokens.

The proposal's mandatory signaling window opens around block 961,632 - which lands right around August 9 - and runs through block 963,647, with activation projected near block 965,664 around September 6 if it gains enough support. The rules are designed to sunset automatically about a year after activation.

Supporters frame BIP-110 as a defense of Bitcoin's role as sound, minimal-footprint money; opponents call it de facto censorship and warn it carries real chain-split risk. Miner support has reportedly stayed in the low single digits, leaving activation genuinely uncertain. A minority chain built around the proposal has already split off at block 961,632 and fallen 48 blocks behind the main chain, producing new blocks roughly every 6.9 hours instead of the usual ten minutes. That splinter chain remains a fringe minority for now, but episodes like this tend to seed uncertainty about whether the network could formally fracture - and that uncertainty is generally a headwind for near-term buying conviction, regardless of how the technical debate ultimately resolves.

Put together, Bitcoin's current stall looks less like a single story and more like a tug-of-war: steady, concentrated ETF demand pulling one way against an as-yet-unconfirmed chart pattern and protocol-level uncertainty pulling the other. Money keeps arriving without moving the price, which often signals that known good news is already priced in and the market is waiting on the next real catalyst before committing to a direction.

What to Take Away From This

• Inflows and price don't always move together. Institutional money arriving at its fastest weekly pace since April while price goes nowhere is a reminder to look past a single flow number - as covered in last week's record Bitcoin ETF inflow story - and check what the chart and order flow are actually doing in response.
• Declining volume during a bottoming pattern is worth watching, not ignoring. Falling buying volume through the formation of the right shoulder suggests conviction hasn't fully built up yet, even as the pattern's structure still points toward a possible reversal.
• Chart pattern targets are probabilistic scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. Both the upside target (~$76,000) and the invalidation level (a break below the ~$63,321 50-day moving average) require specific confirmation levels to become live. The pattern forming is not the same as the pattern completing.
• Protocol-level risk deserves attention alongside price technicals. A dispute like BIP-110 may look like inside baseball to traditional investors, but a genuine chain-split scare can add real short-term volatility on top of whatever the price chart is doing.
• A tight range often means the market is waiting, not resting. Boxed between roughly $63,321 on the downside and $66,800 on the upside, Bitcoin's setup resembles past episodes - like the bitcoin death-cross scare tied to jobs data and rate-hike odds - where an unexpected macro trigger, not a slow grind, ultimately forced the next directional move.

Sources

This article synthesizes and analyzes the reporting and market data below in our own words - it is not a reproduction of the original text. For the latest prices and on-chain data, please verify directly with the sources and live market feeds.

• BTC price news: Head-and-shoulders bottom meets Clarity Act uncertainty - CoinDesk
• Bitcoin (BTC) price news: What next after $853 million in weekly ETF inflows? - CoinDesk
• Bitcoin slips below $65,000 as ETF inflows offset fork concerns - Investing.com

⚠️ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile - always verify the latest data yourself before making any investment decision.