2026-08-16

Week Ahead: Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, Walmart Earnings Line Up With FOMC Minutes Revealing 3 Dissents for a Rate Hike

Written & reviewed by the TradeSmrt editorial team · 2026-08-16

In this article

What Happened
Three Retailers, One Question: Is the Tariff-Squeezed Consumer Still Spending?
What the FOMC Minutes Could Reveal About the Fed's "Family Fight"
What to Take Away From This
FAQ
Sources

What Happened

Wall Street closed out last week on a mixed note Friday, August 14. The S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.2% on the day but still finished the week up 0.4% at 7,785.76, marking its third consecutive weekly gain even after pulling back from a fresh all-time high set earlier in the week. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped roughly 0.2% on Friday, though both indexes also closed the week in positive territory. The pullback was triggered by a pair of disappointing releases that same morning: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month against expectations for a modest gain, and the University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer sentiment reading tumbled to 51.0 from 55.2 in July.

That fragile setup gets tested again almost immediately this week. The five trading days from August 17-21 stack up as one of the densest combinations of corporate and macro catalysts of the summer. On the earnings side, Home Depot (HD) reports before the opening bell Tuesday, August 18. Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), TJX, and Analog Devices (ADI) all report Wednesday, August 19. Walmart (WMT) headlines Thursday, August 20, alongside Alibaba, NetEase, Deere & Co., and Ross Stores. Layered on top of that retail wave, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its July 28-29 FOMC meeting on Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Three Retailers, One Question: Is the Tariff-Squeezed Consumer Still Spending?

The real story behind this week's retail earnings isn't whether any single company beats or misses estimates — it's what their guidance says about how much of the recent tariff-driven cost increase is landing on American shoppers versus being absorbed by the companies themselves. Home Depot and Lowe's are the clearest read on housing-related spending, while Target and Walmart cover everyday household budgets more broadly. Wall Street expects Home Depot to post adjusted EPS of roughly $4.71-4.73, up only slightly from $4.68 a year ago, on revenue near $47 billion. The company has already flagged that new tariffs began hitting costs since its last call and that filed tariff refunds remain uncollected — a detail investors will watch closely for signs of how much margin relief is actually materializing. Gross margin pressure is expected to ease somewhat from the first quarter but persist, with a still-soft housing renovation market adding to the drag.

Target's consensus calls for EPS of $2.25, up 9.8% year-over-year, on revenue of $26.1 billion, up 3.4%. Walmart is expected to post EPS of $0.74, up 8.8% from $0.68 a year ago, with revenue near $186.7-186.8 billion, up roughly 5.3%. Both numbers point to solid growth on paper, but the more interesting story is likely to be the gap between the two companies rather than the headline figures themselves. Walmart's business skews toward groceries and everyday essentials, a defensive mix that has helped it beat expectations repeatedly over recent quarters regardless of the broader consumer mood. Target carries a larger share of discretionary categories like apparel and home décor, which makes it far more exposed when sentiment sours. If the two companies' guidance diverges sharply this week, the takeaway won't be a simple "consumers are pulling back" — it will be a more precise map of exactly which shoppers are cutting back, and on what.

What the FOMC Minutes Could Reveal About the Fed's "Family Fight"

The second major thread this week is Wednesday's release of the minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting — widely regarded as the most contentious Fed gathering of the year so far. Three committee members dissented in favor of raising the federal funds rate by a quarter point, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal deliberations as a "good family fight," while insisting the committee remains unified on its commitment to price stability. That phrase sounds reassuring on its face, but it doesn't tell markets what arguments the hawkish dissenters actually made, or how the majority responded — and that granular detail is exactly what the minutes are built to reveal.

The stakes here are higher than usual because rate-hike odds for the Fed's next meeting on September 16 have swung dramatically over the past few weeks. As of late July, fed funds futures were pricing in roughly an 82% probability of a September hike. That collapsed after the July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 — a sharp miss against expectations for an 80,000-plus gain, and the third-largest monthly decline since the pandemic. CME FedWatch now shows September hike odds sitting closer to 50-50. In other words, markets have been leaning toward treating the three dissents as a hawkish minority rather than a preview of where the committee is heading. If the minutes reveal that more officials than the three formal dissenters voiced concern about tariff-driven inflation, hike odds could snap back higher. If instead the record shows most members treating the weak jobs data as the dominant concern, expectations for a hold — or even a cut — could firm up instead.

This week's minutes also matter beyond their immediate market reaction. The Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs August 27-29, and Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first keynote address as Fed Chair on Friday, August 28, under this year's theme of "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." Traders are already treating this week's minutes as an early read on the tone Warsh is likely to strike two weeks from now. Taken together, this week's earnings and Fed minutes aren't just standalone events — they're the bridge to a bigger one still to come.

What to Take Away From This

Focus on the reasoning behind dissents, not just the vote count. The fact that three officials dissented matters less than the specific arguments the minutes attribute to them — tariff-driven inflation concerns versus labor-market weakness — since that's what actually signals where policy is headed.
The same sector can split sharply by customer base. Walmart and Target both sit in "big-box retail," but their exposure to discretionary versus essential spending means their results can move in opposite directions even under identical macro conditions. Treating a sector as one monolithic story is a mistake.
Gross margin guidance is where tariff pass-through shows up. Watch what Home Depot, Target, and Walmart say about margins specifically — that's the clearest signal of how much of the tariff cost increase companies are passing to consumers versus absorbing themselves.
Read this week's events against the bigger calendar. The FOMC minutes matter on their own, but they're also a preview of the tone Warsh is likely to strike at his Jackson Hole debut two weeks later. Single events are easier to interpret correctly when placed on a longer timeline.

FAQ

How are FOMC minutes different from the post-meeting statement?

The statement released immediately after an FOMC meeting is short and only summarizes the final decision with minimal justification. The minutes, released three weeks later, contain a much fuller account of the discussion — including how individual officials viewed the economic outlook and the specific reasoning behind any dissenting votes. That's why markets often move more on the minutes than on the original statement itself.

Why might Target and Walmart react differently to the same economic backdrop?

Walmart's revenue mix leans heavily toward groceries and other everyday essentials, giving it a more defensive, recession-resistant sales base. Target carries a larger proportion of discretionary categories like apparel and home goods, which are the first things households cut when sentiment weakens. That structural difference is why the two companies can post very different results even when facing the exact same macro environment.

What are the odds of an actual rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting?

As of mid-August, futures markets tracked by tools like CME FedWatch put the odds of a September hike at roughly 50-50, down sharply from around 82% in late July before the weak July jobs report. That number remains fluid and is likely to shift again based on this week's FOMC minutes and any additional economic data released before the meeting.

Sources

This article is an original synthesis and analysis based on the reporting below, not a reproduction of the original articles. Please check the source articles directly for the most current figures and schedule details.

⚠️ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market conditions change constantly - always verify the latest data before making investment decisions.